北京市顺义区1960~2024年降雹特征及成因分析

Characteristics and Causal Analysis of Hailfall in Shunyi District, Beijing, 1960~2024

摘要: 目的：研究顺义区降雹时空规律，揭示山区到平原过渡带的降雹特征。方法：利用多源资料，对顺义国家气象站1960~2024年241个冰雹灾情信息进行统计分析。结果：年代际变化显示，降雹日数于2005年(7 d)、2022年(8 d)出现峰值，2015年起增加趋势明显；降雹频次变化与降雹日数一致；年平均最大冰雹直径呈三峰型，峰值出现在1982、2000、2004年。季节变化上，冰雹发生于春、夏、秋三季，降雹日数呈单峰型，4月起逐月增加，6月达峰值后下降；各月最大冰雹直径无显著差异。日变化方面，降雹集中在傍晚至夜间(16:00~21:00)，中午时段最大冰雹直径总体较大。空间分布上，累计降雹频次木林最高(34次)，龙湾屯次之(20次)；2011年后各行政区降雹频次明显增多，木林、龙湾屯增幅显著，与地形、海拔密切相关。结论：顺义区降雹年代际、年、日变化特征显著，频次与强度空间分布不均且总体呈增加趋势。结果可为区域防灾减灾提供科学依据。

Abstract: This study investigates the spatiotemporal patterns of hailstorms in Shunyi District, Beijing, and characterizes hailfall in the transitional zone from mountainous areas to plains. Based on multi—source data, 241 hail disaster records from the Shunyi National Meteorological Station (1960~2024) were statistically analyzed. Interdecadal variations show that hail days peaked in 2005 (7 days) and 2022 (8 days), with a marked increasing trend since 2015. Hail frequency followed a similar pattern. The annual average maximum hailstone diameter exhibited a three—peak distribution, with maxima in 1982, 2000, and 2004. Seasonally, hailstorms occurred in spring, summer, and autumn. Hail days followed a unimodal distribution, increasing from April to a peak in June, then declining. Monthly maximum hailstone diameters showed no significant differences. Diurnally, hailstorms were most frequent from evening to night (16:00~21:00), while maximum hailstone diameters were generally larger during midday. Spatially, the highest cumulative hail frequency occurred in Mulin (34 times), followed by Longwantun (20 times). After 2011, hail frequency increased significantly across administrative areas, especially in Mulin and Longwantun, closely associated with local topography and altitude. The interdecadal, annual, and diurnal variations of hailfall in Shunyi are pronounced, with an uneven spatial distribution and an overall increasing trend in both frequency and intensity. These findings provide a scientific basis for regional disaster prevention and mitigation.