宁波机场一次突发强雷雨天气过程诊断分析

Diagnostic Analysis of a Sudden Severe Thunderstorm Event at Ningbo Airport

摘要: 利用机场地面观测、探空及ECMWF再分析等资料，对2026年4月9日宁波栎社机场一次春季局地突发强雷雨过程开展诊断分析。结果表明：本次过程由500 hPa高空短波槽、中低空多层西南急流与地面冷锋耦合触发，形成低层辐合、高层辐散的垂直抽吸结构，为对流发展提供了强上升动力；低空急流输送的充沛暖湿水汽在本场辐合堆积，叠加上干下湿的不稳定层结，为对流积蓄了充足能量。该过程表现为孤立中小尺度单体，突发性强，云团东移速度显著快于数值模式预报，全球模式对夜间弱强迫局地对流的预报存在明显缺陷。通过系统分析环流配置与动力、水汽、热力物理量场特征，本文提炼了沿海机场春季强对流的识别判据，可为华东民航机场强雷雨短临预报提供参考。

Abstract: Based on surface‑station observations, radiosonde data and ECMWF reanalysis datasets, a diagnostic analysis is performed on a sudden local severe thunderstorm event at Ningbo Lishe International Airport on 9 April 2026. The results show that this convective event was triggered by the coupling of a short‑wave trough at 500 hPa, multi‑level south‑westerly jets in the middle‑lower troposphere and a surface cold front. A vertical pumping structure characterized by low‑level convergence and upper‑level divergence was formed, providing strong ascending motion for convection development. Abundant warm‑moist water vapor transported by the low‑level jet converged and accumulated over the airport, and an unstable stratification with dry upper layers and moist lower layers supplied sufficient convective energy. This event was an isolated meso‑ and small‑scale convective cell with high suddenness. The eastward‑moving speed of the cloud cluster was remarkably faster than predicted by numerical models, indicating obvious deficiencies of global models in forecasting nocturnal local convection under weak synoptic forcing. Through systematic analysis of circulation patterns as well as dynamic, moisture and thermal physical fields, identification criteria for severe convection in spring at coastal airports are summarized. The findings can provide a reference for the nowcasting of severe thunderstorms at civil aviation airports in East China.