基于多源数据融合的粤北化工园区雷电灾害风险评估——以翁源县华彩片区为例

Lightning Disaster Risk Assessment of Chemical Industrial Parks in Northern Guangdong Based on Multi-Source Data Fusion—A Case Study of the Huacai Area, Wengyuan County

摘要: 针对粤北化工园区雷电环境复杂、承灾体敏感度高的特点，本文融合30年气象观测数据、10年高精度地闪监测数据及现场精细化土壤电阻率测试数据，构建了基于“致灾因子–孕灾环境–承灾体”耦合作用的区域雷电风险评估模型。以翁源县华彩片区为例，通过层次分析法(AHP)与模糊综合评价法量化风险分量。结果表明，研究区属于雷电高发区(年均地闪密度12.70次/km²∙a)，且下垫面土壤电阻率存在显著的空间与垂直分层异质性，最大值达804.6 Ω∙m，这种高阻层导致雷电流散流困难，显著抬升了地电位反击风险。综合风险评估值为6.52，等级为IV级(较高风险)，其中地域环境敏感性与危化品属性的风险贡献度最高。本文提出在进行雷电灾害防御时应采取科学、合理的预防措施，避免和减轻雷灾事故的发生。

Abstract: In view of the complex lightning environment and the high vulnerability of hazard-bearing bodies in chemical industrial parks in northern Guangdong, this study fuses 30-year meteorological observation data, 10-year high-precision cloud-to-ground (CG) lightning monitoring data, and refined on-site soil resistivity measurements, and constructs a regional lightning risk assessment model based on the coupling of “disaster-inducing factors, disaster-forming environment, and hazard-bearing bodies.” Taking the Huacai area of Wengyuan County as a case study, the risk components were quantified using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) combined with the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results show that the study area is a region of frequent lightning activity, with an annual average CG flash density of 12.70 flashes∙km⁻²∙a⁻¹, and that the underlying soil resistivity exhibits significant spatial and vertical stratification heterogeneity, with a maximum value of 804.6 Ω∙m. This high-resistance layer impedes the dissipation of lightning current, thereby markedly elevating the risk of ground potential counterattack (resistive coupling). The comprehensive risk assessment value is 6.52, corresponding to Level IV (relatively high risk), among which regional environmental sensitivity and the hazardous-chemical attributes of the hazard-bearing bodies are the dominant risk contributors. This paper suggests that scientific and reasonable preventive measures should be adopted in lightning disaster defense to avoid and mitigate lightning-induced accidents.