碳交易与碳税混合政策下供应链动态减排决策与工程管理研究

Research on Dynamic Emission Reduction Decision-Making and Engineering Management of Supply Chain under the Mixed Policy of Carbon Trading and Carbon Tax

摘要: 文章聚焦于“双碳”目标下，探讨了碳交易、碳税及两种政策相结合的混合政策如何影响供应链的动态减排决策。研究构建了一个由单个供应商(跟随者)和单个制造商(领导者)组成的二级供应链Stackelberg微分博弈模型。文章分别在碳交易、碳税和混合政策三种情景下，求解了供应链成员的最优减排努力、最终产品的稳态减排水平以及各自的利润。通过对比分析和数值仿真，研究得出结论：混合碳政策对供应链成员的减排激励最强，其减排水平和产品碳减排水平均显著高于单一政策；政府采用“碳税 + 碳交易”的混合政策能够有效推动高排放行业的全链条低碳转型。研究为“双碳”目标下碳政策组合设计、低碳供应链工程管理与碳减排工程实施提供了理论依据。

Abstract: This paper focuses on the “dual carbon” goals and examines how carbon trading, a carbon tax, and a hybrid policy combining the two influence dynamic emissions reduction decisions in supply chains. The study constructs a two-level Stackelberg differential game model consisting of a single supplier (follower) and a single manufacturer (leader). The paper solves for the optimal emission reduction efforts of supply chain participants, the steady-state emission reduction level of the final product, and their respective profits under three scenarios: carbon trading, a carbon tax, and a hybrid policy. Through comparative analysis and numerical simulations, the study concludes that hybrid carbon policies provide the strongest incentives for emissions reduction among supply chain participants, with both their emissions reduction levels and the carbon reduction levels of the final product being significantly higher than under either single policy; the government’s adoption of a “carbon tax + carbon trading” hybrid policy can effectively drive the full-chain low-carbon transition in high-emission industries. This research provides a theoretical basis for the design of carbon policy portfolios, the engineering management of low-carbon supply chains, and the implementation of carbon reduction projects under the “Dual Carbon” goals.