推拉理论视角下互助养老参与意愿研究——基于青年供给和老年需求双样本分析

Mutual-Aid Elderly Care Participation from a Push-Pull Perspective—A Dual-Sample Analysis of Youth and Older Adults

摘要: 随着人口老龄化程度不断加深，养老服务供给面临越来越大的挑战。上海是人口老龄化程度较高的超大城市，据统计截至2025年末，全市户籍人口1555.70万人，其中60岁及以上老年人口584.38万人，占总人口的37.6%，纯老家庭和独居老年人口规模较大。在这一背景下，青年志愿者成为养老服务社会化供给的重要力量，老年群体则是互助养老服务的主要需求主体。现有研究对青年参与动机和养老服务需求已有探讨，但包含供需双方参与意愿视角研究仍相对不足。基于此，本文引入推拉理论与社会交换理论，从推力、拉力和制度审慎性三个维度，分别考察青年供给端和老年需求端参与互助养老服务的意愿及其影响机制。进一步分析发现，青年参与互助养老体现为“责任驱动–收益吸引–价值认同”的多重影响，老年群体则表现为“需求背景–服务吸引–风险权衡”的行为逻辑。由此，互助养老制度的完善不能仅依赖道德倡导，还应同时关注参与收益、制度信任和风险保障。本文将PPM理论与社会交换理论结合，并通过青年供给端与老年需求端的双样本比较，进一步揭示不同主体参与互助养老的行为差异。

Abstract: With the deepening of population aging, elderly care services face increasing supply challenges. As a megacity with a high degree of population aging, Shanghai had 15.5570 million registered residents at the end of 2025, including 5.8438 million residents aged 60 and above (37.6% of the total registered population), with a large number of elderly-only households and older adults living alone. Against this background, young volunteers have become an important force in the socialized provision of elderly care services, while older adults are the primary demand-side group for mutual-aid elderly care. Existing studies have mainly examined young people’s participation motivations and elderly care service needs, but relatively few studies have examined participation intentions from both the supply and demand sides. Drawing on Push-Pull Theory and Social Exchange Theory, this study separately examines young people at the supply end and older adults at the demand end, their intentions to participate in mutual-aid elderly care services, and the influencing mechanisms, from the dimensions of push, pull, and institutional prudence. The findings show that young people’s participation is shaped by responsibility, perceived benefits, and value identification, while older adults’ participation is influenced by care needs, service attractiveness, and risk considerations. The development of mutual-aid elderly care should not rely solely on moral advocacy but should also focus on participation benefits, institutional trust, and risk protection, and combines PPM theory with Social Exchange Theory and, through a dual-sample comparison of the youth supply side and older-adult demand side, further reveals behavioral differences in mutual-aid elderly care participation.