从地面交通到城市空中交通：公众出行方式转移决策机制研究

From Ground Transportation to Urban Air Mobility: Research on the Public Travel Mode Shift Decision-Making Mechanism

摘要: 在低空经济政策与技术的驱动下，城市空中交通产业得到了快速发展。作为一种新兴交通方式，在正式推广之前，有必要探究公众在引入该交通方式后的出行转移决策机制。基于此，本研究首先结合技术接受度和信任等理论框架，提出考虑公众个体特质及其感知(感知可靠性、感知便利性及信任等)的城市空中交通转移意向概念模型，并设计问卷获取实证数据；其次，运用探索性因子分析和克朗巴哈系数检验问卷的信度和效度；最后，基于调查数据验证概念模型的有效性，进而分析潜在变量间的路径关系及其中介效应。研究结果表明：公众的信任(β = 0.444, p < 0.001)对城市空中交通转移意向的直接影响最显著。公众对城市空中交通的相对优势感知(β = 0.232, p = 0.030)、自我效能感(β = 0.109, p = 0.030)和感知便利性(β = 0.113, p = 0.048)是直接影响转移意向的关键因素，而公众的时间敏感性(β = 0.700, p < 0.001)和感知可靠性(β = 0.335, p < 0.001)则分别通过相对优势和态度间接影响转移意向。本研究识别了影响公众从地面交通向城市空中交通转移意向的关键因素，揭示了公众从地面交通向城市空中交通转移的决策机制，为城市空中交通的市场推广等提供了理论依据，推动城市空中交通的高质量发展。

Abstract: Driven by low-altitude economic policies and technologies, the urban air transportation industry achieved rapid development, and urban air transportation was defined as an emerging travel mode; before the official promotion of this travel mode, the public travel shift decision-making mechanism needed to be explored, and three research tasks were completed in this study on this basis. Firstly, theoretical frameworks including the Technology Acceptance Model and Trust Theory were integrated, a conceptual model for the shift intention of urban air transportation containing the public’s individual characteristics and perceptual variables such as perceived reliability, perceived convenience and trust was constructed, and a questionnaire was designed to collect empirical data. Secondly, exploratory factor analysis and Cronbach’s coefficient method were adopted, and the reliability and validity of the questionnaire were tested. Thirdly, survey data were used to verify the effectiveness of the conceptual model, and path relationships and mediating effects between latent variables were analyzed. The findings show that public trust exerts the most significant direct effect on the shift intention of urban air transportation (β = 0.444, p < 0.001); perceived relative advantage (β = 0.232, p = 0.030), self-efficacy (β = 0.109, p = 0.030) and perceived convenience (β = 0.113, p = 0.048) are key variables that directly affect the shift intention, while time sensitivity (β = 0.700, p < 0.001) indirectly affects the shift intention through perceived relative advantage and perceived reliability (β = 0.335, p < 0.001) indirectly affects the shift intention through attitude. Key factors influencing the public’s intention to shift from ground transportation to urban air transportation are identified and the corresponding travel shift decision-making mechanism is revealed in this study, theoretical support is provided for the market promotion of urban air transportation, and the high-quality development of urban air transportation is promoted.