基于WOFOST作物模型的烟草灌溉研究

Research on Tobacco Irrigation Based on the WOFOST Crop Model

摘要: 为提高烟草灌溉决策的定量化水平，本研究以河南许昌烟区为研究对象，利用田间试验和气象数据对WOFOST模型进行参数校准与验证，在此基础上利用2024年气象数据开展不同水分亏缺情景下的灌溉方案模拟。研究首先采用2021年襄城田间试验数据进行模型参数校准，并利用2021年许昌、2022年许昌和2022年襄城数据进行独立验证。结果表明，校准数据中WLV、WST、TAGP和LAI的R²为0.88~0.98，d为0.93~0.98，NRMSE为11.06%~17.75%；验证数据中4项指标的R²为0.80~0.99，d为0.89~0.99，NRMSE为5.25%~17.04%，表明校准后的模型能够较好模拟许昌烟草的生长过程。在此基础上，根据2024年不同区域的水分胁迫产量差(ΔTWLV)和Dry指标设置灌溉情景，比较不同灌溉次数和灌溉时期对水分胁迫产量差及灌溉贡献率的影响。结果显示，鄢陵初始ΔTWLV为327 kg/ha，设置单次70 mm灌溉后，灌溉贡献率为90.21%；许昌、襄城和禹州的初始ΔTWLV分别为1562、1441和1289 kg/ha，在本研究设置的90 mm灌溉情景中，3次灌溉的灌溉贡献率分别达到93.60%、87.99%和82.47%，均高于相应区域的单次和两次灌溉情景。研究结果可为许昌烟区烟草水分胁迫评估和灌溉方案制定提供模型依据。

Abstract: To improve the quantitative basis of tobacco irrigation decision-making, this study used Xuchang, Henan Province, as the study area. Field observations and meteorological data were used to calibrate and validate the WOFOST model. The calibrated model was then driven by 2024 meteorological data to simulate irrigation scenarios under different levels of water stress. The model was calibrated using 2021 field data from Xiangcheng and independently validated using data from Xuchang in 2021 and 2022 and Xiangcheng in 2022. For WLV, WST, TAGP and LAI, the calibration results showed R² values of 0.88~0.98, d values of 0.93~0.98, and NRMSE values of 11.06%~17.75%. The validation results showed R² values of 0.80~0.99, d values of 0.89~0.99, and NRMSE values of 5.25%~17.04%, indicating that the calibrated model could effectively simulate the growth process of tobacco in Xuchang. Based on the 2024 simulations, irrigation scenarios were designed according to the water-stress yield gap (ΔTWLV) in different regions and the Dry indicator, and the effects of irrigation frequency and timing were compared. The results showed that the initial ΔTWLV in Yanling was 327 kg/ha; after a single irrigation application of 70 mm, the irrigation contribution rate was 90.21%. The initial ΔTWLV values for Xuchang, Xiangcheng, and Yuzhou were 1562, 1441, and 1289 kg/ha, respectively. Under the 90 mm irrigation scenario established in this study, the irrigation contribution rates for three irrigation events reached 93.60%, 87.99%, and 82.47%, respectively, all of which were higher than those under the single-and two-irrigation scenarios in the corresponding areas. These results provide a model-based reference for assessing water stress and designing irrigation schemes for tobacco production in Xuchang.