施秉干旱时空演变特征对农作物种植调控策略

Spatiotemporal Evolution Characteristics of Drought in Shibing County and Its Impact on Agricultural Planting Regulation Strategies

摘要: 施秉县位于贵州东部的喀斯特地貌区域，该区域干旱灾害频发，严重制约农业可持续发展，为破解这一难题，科研团队开展专项研究，旨在揭示当地近30年干旱的时空演变规律，剖析其对农作物种植结构的影响，提出适应性调控策略。此次研究选用了施秉县气象站在1993年至2023年期间记录的逐日降水、气温等气象数据，基于标准化降水蒸散指数(SPEI)科学划分干旱等级，结合GIS空间分析技术直观呈现干旱的时空分布特征，凭借对施秉县农作物种植面积数据展开统计分析，深入剖析干旱对当地农作物种植结构所产生的影响。结果表明，近30年施秉县干旱发生频率呈上升趋势，其中春旱、夏旱发生频次尤为突出。从空间分布的状况来看，干旱的程度是从西北方向朝着东南方向逐渐降低的，受到干旱的影响，水稻的种植面积因为灌溉用水的短缺而逐年出现减少的情况，减少的幅度达到了44.7%。与之相对的是，像玉米这类耐旱作物的种植面积则呈现出波动上升的态势。依据上述研究，团队提出了适应性调控策略，涉及优化农作物种植布局，于干旱严重区域缩减水稻种植规模并推广耐旱作物，在水资源丰富区域发展特色果蔬，推广耐旱作物品种，联合科研院校选育并推广耐旱水稻、玉米等品种，完善农田水利设施，新建蓄水工程、改造老旧水渠、推广节水灌溉技术，同时提出发展节水农业、构建农业保险与灾害预警体系等举措。此研究成果为施秉县农业抗旱减灾及可持续发展提供了关键科学依据，对推动当地农业提质增效、促进农户增收具有重要实践意义。

Abstract: This study aims to reveal the temporal and spatial evolution patterns of drought in Shibing County over the past 30 years, explore its impact on the crop planting structure, and propose adaptive control strategies. Daily meteorological data such as precipitation and temperature from 1993 to 2023 from the Shibing County Meteorological Station were selected. The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) was used to classify drought grades. Combined with GIS spatial analysis technology, the distribution characteristics of drought in time and space were studied. Based on statistical analysis of the data on the planting area of crops in Shibing County, the impact of drought on the crop planting structure was analyzed. The results show that the frequency of drought occurrence in Shibing County has been on the rise in the past 30 years, with spring and summer droughts being relatively frequent. Spatially, the severity of drought gradually decreases from northwest to southeast. Drought has affected the planting area of major crops such as rice and corn, with the planting area of rice decreasing year by year due to the threat of drought. Based on the research results, adaptive control strategies such as optimizing the layout of crop planting, promoting drought-resistant crop varieties, and improving farmland water conservancy facilities are proposed. The research results can provide a scientific basis for drought resistance and disaster reduction in agriculture in Shibing County and the sustainable development of agriculture.