铜仁机场2010年~2025年降水特征分析

Analysis of Precipitation Characteristics of Tongren Airport from 2010 to 2025

摘要: 本文基于铜仁机场基准观测点自动观测站2010~2025年逐日降水数据，利用线性回归、Morlet小波分析、Mann-Kendall突变检验等方法对降水特征进行分析。结果表明：铜仁机场降水丰沛，呈波动性变化，年降水量减少趋势不明显，冬季降水量总体以61 mm/10 a的速率显著增多。降水量年内分布呈单峰型，峰值为6月，5月次之，主要出现在春夏季节(占比70%)。降水日数年内呈双峰值分布，3~5月最多，6月次之。暴雨量和暴雨日数的月分布均呈单峰值分布，在4~10月出现，峰值为7月，6月次之，主要集中在夏季，年平均贡献率分别为23%、2.3%，暴雨对年降水量的影响十分显著。突变检验显示，冬季降水量在2015年突变增多，秋季降水量在2016年突变减少，暴雨量在2018年突变减少。降水量存在4~6 a与2~3 a两类时间尺度的周期振荡，主周期为4.5 a。

Abstract: Based on the daily precipitation data of the automatic observation station of Tongren Airport from 2010 to 2025, the precipitation characteristics were analyzed by linear regression, Morlet wavelet analysis and Mann-Kendall mutation test. The results showed that the precipitation in Tongren Airport was abundant and fluctuated. The decreasing trend of annual precipitation was not obvious, and the precipitation in winter increased significantly at a rate of 61 mm/10 a. The annual distribution of precipitation was unimodal, with the peak in June, followed by May, mainly in spring and summer (accounting for 70%). The number of precipitation days showed a double-peak distribution during the year, with the most in March-May and the second in June. The monthly distribution of rainstorm amount and rainstorm days showed a single peak distribution, which appeared from April to October, with the peak in July, followed by June, mainly concentrated in summer, and the annual average contribution rates were 23% and 2.3%, respectively. The impact of rainstorm on annual precipitation is very significant. The mutation test showed that the winter precipitation increased abruptly in 2015, the autumn precipitation decreased abruptly in 2016, and the rainstorm decreased abruptly in 2018. There are two kinds of periodic oscillations with 4~6 a and 2~3 a time scales in precipitation, and the main period is 4.5 a.