新质生产力对区域电商经济绿色发展能效基础的影响研究——基于珠三角城市面板数据的实证分析

The Impact of New Quality Productive Forces on the Energy Efficiency Foundation of Regional E-Commerce Green Development—An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel Data from Pearl River Delta Cities

摘要: 随着电子商务由规模扩张转向绿色化、高质量发展，区域能效水平成为支撑电商经济绿色转型的重要基础。本文基于2013~2023年珠三角9个城市面板数据，从劳动者、劳动对象和生产资料三个维度构建新质生产力评价指标体系，采用熵权-TOPSIS法测度城市新质生产力水平，并以能源消费强度刻画区域电商经济绿色发展的能效基础，运用多元线性回归、中介效应检验、异质性检验和门槛效应模型，考察新质生产力对能源消费强度的影响机制。研究发现：新质生产力能够显著降低能源消费强度，改善区域电商经济绿色发展所依赖的能效基础；产业结构高度化在二者关系中发挥中介作用；新质生产力的能效改善作用存在区域异质性，内陆城市的边际效应更强；城镇化水平存在门槛特征，当城镇化率超过约86.7%后，新质生产力对能源消费强度的抑制作用进一步增强。研究结论可为珠三角地区提升新质生产力水平、改善电商经济绿色发展能效基础提供经验证据。

Abstract: As e-commerce shifts from a focus on scale expansion toward green, high-quality development, regional energy efficiency has become a crucial foundation for the green transition of the e-commerce economy. Based on panel data from nine cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD) spanning from 2013 to 2023, this study constructs an evaluation index system for new quality productive forces—encompassing the dimensions of labor, objects of labor, and means of production—and employs the entropy weight-TOPSIS method to measure these forces at the city level. Using energy consumption intensity as a proxy for the energy efficiency foundation of the regional e-commerce economy, the study applies multiple linear regression, mediation analysis, heterogeneity analysis, and threshold effect modeling to examine the mechanisms through which new quality productive forces influence energy consumption intensity. The findings indicate that new quality productive forces significantly reduce energy consumption intensity, thereby strengthening the energy efficiency foundation essential for the green development of the regional e-commerce economy. Industrial structure upgrading serves as a mediating factor in this relationship. Furthermore, the impact of new quality productive forces on energy efficiency exhibits regional heterogeneity, with a stronger marginal effect observed in inland cities. Additionally, the level of urbanization acts as a threshold variable; once the urbanization rate exceeds approximately 86.7%, the inhibitory effect of new quality productive forces on energy consumption intensity becomes even more pronounced. These conclusions provide empirical evidence to support the Pearl River Delta region in enhancing its new quality productive forces and improving the energy efficiency foundation for the green development of its e-commerce economy.