中国对东南亚矿业工程项目投资效率研究

Research on the Investment Efficiency of China in Mining Projects in Southeast Asia

摘要: 在“一带一路”国际工程合作深化的背景下，东南亚已成为我国矿业工程出海的核心承载区域。为系统评估我国对东南亚矿业工程项目的投资效率，本文选取东南亚10国2015~2024年面板数据，构建包含资本、劳动双投入与工程建设、贸易效益、碳排放三产出的评价体系，采用超效率DEA模型测算静态投资效率并分析时空演化特征，结合全局Malmquist-Luenberger (GML)指数从动态视角分解绿色全要素生产率的驱动来源。研究发现：① 我国对东南亚矿业工程整体投资效率呈“先降后升”的波动特征，国别分化显著，新加坡、老挝、文莱处于高效梯队，印度尼西亚、菲律宾、缅甸等国长期处于低效区间；② 规模效率差异是效率分层的核心来源，多数资源丰裕国呈现规模报酬递减特征，而欠发达工程市场仍处于规模报酬递增阶段；③ 动态视角下绿色全要素生产率的增长主要由技术进步驱动，对效率改善的贡献相对有限，技术追赶效应尚未充分释放。研究从差异化工程布局、全流程项目管控、绿色技术协同等维度提出优化路径，可为我国矿业工程企业出海布局与效率提升提供决策参考。

Abstract: Under the background of the deepening of international engineering cooperation under the “Belt and Road Initiative”, Southeast Asia has become the core region for China’s mining engineering projects to go global. To systematically evaluate the investment efficiency of China’s mining engineering projects in Southeast Asia, this paper selects panel data of 10 Southeast Asian countries from 2015 to 2024, constructs an evaluation system including capital and labor input, construction engineering, trade benefits, and carbon emissions as three outputs, and uses the super-efficiency DEA model to calculate the static investment efficiency and analyze the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics. Combined with the global Malmquist-Luenberger (GML) index, it decomposes the driving sources of green total factor productivity from a dynamic perspective. The research findings are as follows: ① The overall investment efficiency of China’s mining engineering projects in Southeast Asia shows a fluctuating pattern of “first decline then rise,” with significant country differentiation. Singapore, Laos, and Brunei are in the efficient, while Indonesia, the Philippines, and Myanmar have been in the low-efficiency range for a long time; ② The difference in scale efficiency is the core source of efficiency stratification. Most resource-abundant countries exhibit a feature of decreasing scale returns, while underdeveloped engineering markets are still in the stage of increasing scale returns; ③ From a dynamic perspective, the growth of green total factor productivity is mainly driven by technological progress, and the contribution of efficiency improvement is relatively limited, and the effect of technological catch-up has not been fully released. The research proposes optimization paths from dimensions such as differentiated engineering layout, full-process project management, and green technology collaboration, which can provide decision-making references for Chinese mining engineering enterprises’ overseas layout and efficiency improvement.