数字普惠金融与农民增收：机制与边界

Digital Inclusive Finance and Farmers’ Income Growth: Mechanisms and Boundaries

摘要: 在乡村振兴背景下，数字普惠金融为促进农民持续增收提供了新的金融支持路径。本文基于2011~2023年全国31个省级面板数据，采用双向固定效应模型和面板门槛模型，考察数字普惠金融对农民收入的影响、作用机制及边界条件。研究发现：数字普惠金融能够显著促进农民增收，经过一系列稳健性检验后，结论仍然成立；数字普惠金融通过推动农村产业结构升级、提升农业绿色全要素生产率和增强农村创业活跃度发挥增收作用；其增收效应在东部和中部地区显著；人口老龄化存在双重门槛效应，随着老龄化程度加深，数字普惠金融的边际增收效应逐渐减弱。研究结论表明，应完善农村数字金融基础设施和涉农金融服务，并针对西部及老龄化程度较高地区实施差异化支持政策。

Abstract: Against the backdrop of rural revitalization, digital inclusive finance provides a new form of financial support for sustaining farmers’ income growth. Based on panel data from 31 provincial-level regions in China from 2011 to 2023, this study employs a two-way fixed-effects model and a panel threshold model to examine the effects, mechanisms, and boundary conditions of digital inclusive finance on farmers’ income. The results show that digital inclusive finance significantly increases farmers’ income, and this finding remains robust after a series of robustness tests. Digital inclusive finance promotes farmers’ income growth by facilitating rural industrial upgrading, improving agricultural green total factor productivity, and stimulating rural entrepreneurial activity. Its income-enhancing effect is significant in eastern and central China. Moreover, population aging produces a double-threshold effect, with the marginal income-enhancing effect of digital inclusive finance gradually diminishing as the degree of population aging increases. These findings suggest that rural digital financial infrastructure and agriculture-related financial services should be improved, while differentiated support policies should be implemented for western regions and regions with higher levels of population aging.