企业经济政策不确定性感知与企业价值：数字化转型的中介作用与数据资产的调节作用

Perceived Economic Policy Uncertainty and Firm Value: The Mediating Role of Digital Transformation and the Moderating Role of Data Assets

摘要: 基于2010~2024年中国A股上市公司45869个企业–年度观测，本文从年报管理层讨论与分析文本构建企业经济政策不确定性感知指标，采用双向固定效应、双重机器学习和工具变量等方法检验其企业价值效应。结果表明：不确定性感知总体上显著降低企业价值，并通过抑制数字化转型形成中介传导；数据资产交互项显著为负，其边际效应由低水平时的正向关联转为均值附近不显著和高水平时的负向关联，体现条件性调节。自贸区DID与PSM-DID的静态系数虽为正，但事件研究不支持平行趋势，故仅作探索性关联解释。研究从企业主观感知视角补充了政策不确定性的微观价值效应，并为数字化战略、数据治理和政策预期管理提供依据。

Abstract: Using 45,869 firm-year observations for Chinese A-share listed companies from 2010 to 2024, this study constructs firm-level perceived economic policy uncertainty measures from annual-report MD&A text. Two-way fixed effects, double machine learning, and instrumental-variable specifications show that perceived uncertainty is generally negatively associated with firm value. Digital transformation forms a mediating channel. The interaction with data assets is negative: the marginal association is positive at low data-asset levels, insignificant near the mean, and negative at high levels, indicating conditional rather than universal moderation. Conventional DID and PSM-DID estimates for pilot free trade zones are positive, but the event study rejects parallel trends; these estimates are therefore interpreted as exploratory associations, not causal effects. The evidence extends research on the firm-level value consequences of perceived policy uncertainty and informs digital strategy, data governance, and policy-expectation management.