革命老区金融发展收敛性的分位数回归分析—以川东北五市为例

Quantile Regression Analysis to the Convergence of Financial Development in the Old Revolutionary Regional—Based on the Five Cities in Northeast Sichuan

摘要: 选取1999年~2013年的数据作为样本空间，采用FIR对数值这一指标，对川东北五市的金融发展做σ-收敛分析。根据σ-收敛的结果，把15年分为2个阶段，然后运用分位数回归对二个阶段做绝对β-收敛和条件β-收敛的对比分析。结果表明，2005年~2013年川东北五市都具有绝对β-收敛以及条件β-收敛的特性，在不同的边际效果下金融发展的初期水平对绝对β-收敛的速度具有影响。运用分位数回归得出的结果更符合实际，具有重要的参考价值。

Abstract: Selecting data from 1999 to 2013 as the sample space, based on the logarithm value of FIR as the indicator of the financial development, the σ-convergence of the five cities in northeastern Sichuan is analyzed. Based on the result, we divide the 15 years into two stages. Furthermore, the absolute β-convergence and the conditional β-convergence are analyzed by using the quantile regression. The results of the quantile regression analysis show that: from 2005 to 2013, the five cities in northeastern Sichuan have absolute β-convergence and conditional β-convergence. The speed of the absolute β-convergence is impacted by the initial financial development level under different marginal effects. The results obtained using quantile regression, are more realistic and have important reference value.