陕西农村适应气候变化状况及脆弱性评估与分析

Investigation and Analysis about the Adaptation on Climate Changes in Rural Area

摘要: 目的：全球应对气候变化有两种策略，国际社会(包括中国)在减缓气候变化的策略和行动上效果极其显著，但在适应策略和行动上普遍不足，特别在农村社区的适应气候变化方面缺乏研究和行动。国内已有的研究往往缺乏参与式理念和社会性别的视角，或者仅仅局限在生计层面评估适应气候变化的脆弱性。本研究将以陕西为例，用参与式农村工作方法和社会性别理念，在可持续生计框架基础上，评估农村适应气候变化状况、分析存在的问题，为国家农业适应气候变化提供案例和方法。方法：在持续发展生计分析框架基础上建立了含有74个指标的评价体系，在陕西省3个不同气候脆弱区选取7个县7个村庄进行了参与式农村适应气候变化评估，找出气候影响关键因素与关键生计种类，用多目标综合决策方法对农村气候变化脆弱性进行评估。结果：陕西省气候变化与中国北方气候变化趋势基本相同。因气候变化，陕西省农村社区的适应能力也在发生改变。随着气候变化更加剧烈和无常，农户适应策略和收入来源也多样化。农户的适应决策受到政策、制度支持系统的影响，表现在5个方面的需要：1) 获得相应的气候和天气资料，2) 加强灾害管理，3) 增加水源，4) 改善农业支持系统，5) 适应能力的建设。鉴于农户的气候脆弱性高，适应策略应当更集中于农村社区，同时政府对农户的投入是实施有效政策干预所必不可少的策略。

Abstract: Object: There are 2 strategies to cope with climate change (mitigating and adaptation) in the world, and the international community (including China) has made achievements significantly on mitigating strategy, but the adaptation strategies and actions generally are inadequate, especially in rural community adaptation. Previous studies tend to lack participatory concept and gender perspective, or are limited to the investigation of adapting to climate change vulnerability in terms of living level. Taking Shaanxi province as an example, using participatory rural work method and gender concept, the research assessed the adaptation on climate changes in rural area and the existing problems based on the sustainable livelihood framework, which provided methods for national agriculture to adapt to climate change. Method: Seven villages in vulnerable climate areas in Shaanxi province were selected using PRA (participatory rural assessment) for vulnerability research, and the policy and system of climate change of government in Shaanxi provincial were surveyed and interviewed. Result: The trend of climate changes in Shaanxi province is the same as that generally expected in northern China. While impacts are clear, farmers are already adapting. Households are diversifying income sources as the climate becomes more variable. Household adaptation decisions however are shaped by institutional support systems. Developing an enabling environment for adaptation requires institutional support in five main areas: 1) accessing the climate and weather information; 2) improving disaster management; 3) increasing water access; 4) improving agricultural support systems; 5) constructing adaptive capacity. In view of the vulnerable climate in rural areas, it is essential that the adaptive strategy should focus on rural community, and the government should spend more on rural households.