山东菏泽高温天气变化特征及灾害评估

Variation Characteristics of High Temperature Weather and Its Hazard Assessment in Heze of Shandong Province

摘要: 本文选取菏泽地面气象观测站1961~2014年高温资料，统计分析了高温天气分布和变化特征，采用月高温异常指数，对高温天气灾害危险程度进行评估排序与分级。结果表明：近54年，菏泽高温日数变化趋势不明显；年代际变化呈现出“多~少~多”的特征，极端高温与高温日数的年代际变化特征基本一致。高温日和高温天气过程均主要出现在6~7月，6月最多；2000年以来，6月、7月、9月高温日数均有增多趋势。从高温日数、持续时间和强度综合评估高温灾害危险程度，能客观地反映出高温灾害天气的分布特征，为今后高温灾害评估业务提供参考。

Abstract: Based on the high temperature data in Heze from 1961 to 2014, the distribution and variation characteristics of high temperature weather were analyzed, and the arrangement and the class to the high temperature were set up by the methods of high temperature anomaly index. The results showed that the change trend of high temperature days was not obvious in recent 54 years, while the decadal change presented “more-less-more” characteristic. The variation characteristics of high temperature days were basically identical with extreme high temperature. The high temperature and high temperature weather process were all mainly appeared in the June to July, mostly in June; the trend of high temperature days had increased in June, July and September in since 2000. The result could objectively reflect the variation characteristics of high temperature weather from the comprehensive evaluation of high temperature disaster risk level with high temperature days, duration and intensity, and provide reference for business of the high temperature disaster evaluation in future.