全球热机带和冷机带火山活动的比较研究—兼论对热机带火山预测研究思路的改进

Comparative Study of Global Volcano Activities on the Hot Engine Belt and the Cooling Seismic Belt—Improvement on Research Ideas of Volcano Prediction on the Hot Engine Belt

摘要: 本文根据地震地热说的工作方法，采用Smithsonian Institution的火山资料、Mantleplumes网页的地幔柱资料以及作者的地震柱资料，以地震柱或地幔柱为构造单元和统计单元，对比分析了火山活动与热机带和冷机带的依存性、火山的喷发类型、火山的兴衰史，并讨论了火山的成因和热机带火山预测的可能性，从而为地震地热说火山预测方法的研究奠定了理论基础。研究结果表明，火山的成因与地幔内的地震柱和/或地幔柱有关，火山活动的能量与热物质的补给可能来自地幔的深部，从而构成两类性质差异的火山群落，地震柱型火山和地幔柱型火山，各自具有不同的活动方式与活动规律。热机带及其所包含的地震柱，是全球火山活动的主体，也是全球地质灾变的主体，与人类的生存休戚相关。因此，应该拓展火山的预测研究思路，加强对壳下地震活动的监测与研究，或许能解热机带内的火山预测之困。

Abstract: According to the Seismo-geothermics working method and using the GVP volcanic material of Smithsonian Institution web, the mantle plume data of mantleplumes web and author’s seismic cone data, this article comparatively studied the dependency of volcanic activity with the hot engine belt and the cooling seismic belt, volcanic eruption type, the rise and fall of volcanic history by tectonic units and statistical unit of cones and plumes, and discussed volcanic origin and possibility of volcano prediction on the hot engine belt, which made the theoretical foundation of Seis-mo-geothermics volcano prediction method study. The study shows that the genesis of volcano is related to mantle hotspots, the seismic cone and/or the mantle plume. The energy and the thermal material of volcanic activity may come from the deep mantle, which constitute the two different types of volcanic communities called as cone type volcano and plume type volcano, and with dif-ferent mode and rule of activity respectively. The hot engine belt and seismic cones thereof are the main body of the global volcanic activity, and the main geological disaster in the world, which affects the human survival. Therefore, we should expand the volcanic prediction research ideas and strengthen the monitoring and study of subcrustal earthquake activity, which perhaps can bring some new hope of volcanic prediction difficulties on the hot engine belt.