中国南方暴雨日数的气候变化特征

Climate Change Characteristics of Rainstorm Days in South China

摘要: 本文利用中国南方地区225个测站1961~2010年逐日降水量资料，采用趋势分析、Monte Carlo检验、滑动T检验、Mann-Kendall分析等方法，分析了50年来南方地区暴雨日数的时空分布特征及其变化规律。结果表明：华南、长江中下游平原和成都平原是相对多暴雨区。大多数地方暴雨日数趋势不显著，东部略有增多，西部略有减少趋势。但成都平原显著减少，1992年发生突变，长江中下游的暴雨日数有较明显的增多趋势，1986发生突变；在季节分布上，冬季最少，夏季最多，春季多于秋季。冬季暴雨主要出现在华南，略有增多趋势；春季主要出现在华南、长江中下游平原，变化趋势不明显；夏季暴雨最多且有显著增多趋势。其中，华南略有增多，长江中下游显著增多，成都平原显著减少；秋季主要出现在滇南–华南–浙西等沿海地区，无明显趋势；受东亚季风影响，南方各地暴雨日数都为单峰型，其中成都平原8月为峰值，其余各地6月为峰值，成都平原暴雨集中在7~8月，长江中下游平原集中在5~6月，华南集中在5~8月。在全球气候变暖背景下，中国南方暴雨日数响应气候变化，增温显著区，暴雨增多，增温不显著区，暴雨减少。

Abstract: Using the day by day precipitation data at 225 stations in the south area of China in the period of 1961-2010, with the trend analysis, Monte Carlo test method, the sliding T test, Mann-Kendall, etc., the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of rainfall day and evolution rule above rainstorm in the south of China for 50 years are analyzed. Results show that the Southern China, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River and the Chengdu Plain are relatively more rains-torm areas. Rainstorm day trend is not significant in most areas; there is a slight increase in the east and a slight decrease in the west. But rainstorm days have significantly reduced in Chengdu Plain. There was a remarkable mutation in 1992. Rainstorm days of the Yangtze River have an obvious increasing trend. There was a remarkable mutation in 1986. As for seasonal distribution, it is the least in winter and most in summer. It is more in spring than in autumn. Winter rainstorm mainly occurs in southern China and it has a slight increasing trend; spring rainstorm mainly occurs in southern China, the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. It changes insignificantly. Rainstorm in summer is the most and has a significant increase trend. Among them, a slight increase is in southern China and an obvious increase is in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. It reduces significantly in Chengdu Plain; in autumn. Rainstorm occurs mainly in southern Yunnan-southern China-western Zhejiang and other coastal areas, no clear trend; rainstorm days of south areas form a unimodal sequence. Chengdu Plain reaches its peak in August and the rest areas reach the peak in June. Rainstorm of Chengdu Plain mainly occurs in the period from July to August. It is concentrated in the period of May to June in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River. It is concentrated in the period of May to August in southern China. Under the background of global warming, rainstorm days in the south of China are response to climate change. Rainstorm increases in significant warming area and reduces in insignificant warming area.