全球及中国风速变化及对风能影响的新认知

The Updated Understanding of the Change in Near-Surface and Upper Air Wind and Wind Energy

摘要: 评述了IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)、可再生能源与减缓气候变化特别报告(SRREN)以及国内作者近年来对风速和风能资源变化评估、研究的主要成果。AR5第一工作组(WGI)报告认为，过去几十年全球近地表风速在中低纬度地区表现为下降趋势，在高纬度部分地区以及两极地区表现出增加趋势；且对空中风速变化的研究很少，目前尚没有系统的全球高空风速变化分析。国内的研究表明，近地表和高空风速在我国大部分地区为减小趋势，但高空风速减小趋势比近地表弱得多；个别高纬度地点及高山站平均风速有增加趋势。由于资料缺乏均一性，近地表风速和高空风速变化研究的可信度还不高。SRREN指出，全球气候变化可能改变风力资源的地理分布和/或年内和年际变异性，并可改变风能资源的质量，但难以对全球风能利用潜力造成显著影响。

Abstract: The assessment of wind speed and energy change and the main results of IPCC (AR5), SRREN AND domestic researchers are reviewed in this paper. The first working group of IPCC (AR5) concluded that the surface wind speed decreased in low and mid-latitude areas while increasing in high-latitude areas including Arctic and Antarctic. There are few studies about the upper-air with systematic global trend analysis. The domestic studies expose that the near-surface and upper-air wind speed decreased in most parts of China except some places located in high-latitude or on the mountains, but the decrease tendency of the upper-air is much more inconspicuous than that of near-surface. Because lacking of the homogenized records, the confidence in both near-surface and upper-air wind speed trend is low. The SRREN considers that the climate change will change the quality of the wind power by changing the distribution and the yearly variation. But it will not prohibit the using of the wind power resource.