新疆哈密市近55a来霜冻变化特征及其对农业的影响

Frost Variation and Its Influence on Agriculture in Hami of Xinjiang in Recent 55 Years

摘要: 利用哈密市1961~2015年逐日气温资料，采用线性趋势、异常分析等统计方法，对霜冻变化进行分析。结果表明：近55a来哈密市初霜冻日明显推迟、终霜冻日提早、无霜冻期延长的趋势。特早初霜冻和特晚终霜冻发生频率为3%~6%，偏早初霜冻和偏晚终霜冻发生频率为10%~13%。哈密市异常初霜冻对秋作物的产量影响较小，而霜冻灾害主要是由终霜冻造成的。

Abstract: According to the daily air temperature data from 1961 to 2015 in Hami, the changes of frost were analyzed by using statistical methods such as the linear trend and abnormal analysis. The results show that: in recent fifty years, the starting date of frost in Hami city was delayed; the end date of frost was advanced; the period without frost was prolonged. The occurred frequency of special early frost and special late frost is 3% - 6%, and the occurred frequency of exceptional early frost and exceptional late frost is 10% - 13%. In Hami, the exceptional starting date of frost has a minor effect on the yield of crops in autumn, and frost disaster on crops is primarily caused by the end date of frost.