一类复杂系统下元胞自动机传染病模型的控制和预测

Control and Prediction of Cellular Automata Epidemic Model under a Complex System

摘要: 本文以复杂网络系统为基础，构造了带有干预机制的元胞自动机模型。在二维网格 上，通过增加个体自主移动性构建了动态社会网络，模拟了在医疗干预下传染病的传播过程，动态刻画了不同时段的疾病爆发情况，体现了传染病传播特性。传染病的传播特征如消退型传播、爆发等，均能在模拟中体现出来，符合传染病传播规律。仿真结果表明医疗干预等措施对传染病传播能起到一定的抑制作用，为采取合理的预防及干预手段提供了参考和依据。最后利用该模型模拟了中国境内梅毒疫情的发病和传播情况，并预测了未来发展趋势，从而证明了该模型能够较好的反映动态社会网络和个体适应性行为对疾病传播的影响，模型结论并可运用于疫情预测。

Abstract: Based on the complex network, we put out a CA model with medical intervention. By increasing the mobility of individual autonomy to construct dynamic social network, we simulate the transmission process of infectious disease, in the two-dimensional regular network, and depict the different time of the outbreak of the disease and flow characteristic. The propagation characteristic of different infectious diseases, such as the involuting propagation, eruption, can be reflected in the simulation. The simulation results show that: Medical intervention played a certain effect on the transmission of infectious diseases, and also gave a quantification of a medical intervention, which provided reference and basis to take reasonable prevention and intervention methods. The model can reflect the dynamic social network and individual adaptability behavior on disease transmission effect, and maintain consistency with the actual situation.