北京市南锣鼓巷街区密集人群特征及安全预警研究

Study on Characteristics Parameters of Dense Crowds and Security Early Warning of Nanluogu Alley in Beijing

摘要: 近年来，在国内外人群密集公共场所突发踩踏事故中造成的人员伤亡，引起社会和管理部门的关注。北京市南锣鼓巷街区由于区域面积十分狭小，节假日大量游客的聚集，造成了发生踩踏事故的安全隐患。本文于2016年的工作日及节假日，对南锣鼓巷主街进行视频监测、测量和问卷调查，通过分析和对比不同人群密度下行人的聚集状态，提出了四级预警阈值，并采用季节性预测法对未来南锣鼓巷人群密度进行了预测。研究成果可为密集人群街区的监控预警和应急管理参考。

Abstract: In recent years, the accidents happened at home and abroad have caused serious casualties, attracted the attention of society and management. The Nanluogu Alley in Beijing is limited, and a large number of tourists gathered to the region caused a security risk of a stampede. Working days and holidays in 2016, we carried out video monitoring, measurement and questionnaire in Nan-luogu Alley Street, based on the comparison of pedestrian walking state in different population density, the four warning threshold is established, and using the time series prediction method to predict the crowd density of Nanluogu Alley in the future. The research results can be a reference for monitoring crowd blocks and emergency management.