气候变化背景下基于最大熵模型(MaxEnt)预测黄连的适生区分布

Suitable Habitats Prediction of Coptis chinensis under Climate Change Based on MaxEnt

摘要: 采用最大熵模型及多种气候变化场景，预测黄连在气候变化背景下的当代及未来适生区分布格局。结果表明黄连分布模型具有极佳的预测精度。黄连当代适生区总面积为131.08 × 10⁴ km²，占中国版图的13.65%；其中，当代适生区79.89%的区域为相对稳定适生区，受气候变化影响相对较小。在气候变化背景下，相较于当代，其在21世纪20、30、40、50、60、70和80年代的适生区总面积及低度适生区总面积均有不同程度的减少，中度适生区总面积均有不同程度增加，高度适生区总面积呈现明显的波动趋势。气候变化不仅影响黄连适生区总面积，也会影响黄连的生境适宜度。

Abstract: Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) modeling and varieties of climate change scenarios were employed to predict the current and future distribution patterns of Coptis chinensis under climate change in China. Results showed that the resultant models exhibited excellent predictive power. The current suitable habitats for C. chinensis totaled 131.08 × 10⁴ km², accounting for 13.65% of the total area of China, and 79.89% of its current suitable habitats would be relatively lowly impacted by the climate change. Compared with its current distribution pattern, its distribution ranges and lowly suitable regions during 2020s, 2030s, 2040s, 2050, 2060s, 2070s and 2080s would be shrunk to some extent, while moderate habitats would increase to some extent, and high suitable habitats would fluctuate. In conclusion, climate change affects both the total area and the habitat suitability of C. chinensis.