服装企业层次时间序列销售预测协调探究

Exploration of Hierarchical Time Series Sales Forecast of Apparel Enterprises

摘要: 销售预测是企业决策的基础，针对目前销售预测对象单一，忽视不同层次对象销售预测之间的联系，导致多层次销售预测结果不统一的现象，对层次时间序列销售预测协调进行探究。分别比较了传统由上至下，由下至上方法以及新提出的基于底层预测值比例的由上至下方法和基于最小二乘思想及底层预测值比例的预测协调法这四种方法。并以实际服装销售数据进行算例分析，结果表明新方法在保证预测结果统一的情况下，其平均预测精度也有所提高，为需要制定细化多层次销售预测的服装企业提供新的思路。

Abstract: Sales forecasting is the foundation of business decisions. As to the problem that there is disunity phenomenon among the process of hierarchical time series forecasting due to neglection of the connection between different hierarchies and the unicity of the sales forecast object, this paper aims to explore the hierarchical sales forecasting coordination methods. It compares four coordi-nation methods, “top-down” method, “bottom-up” method, and “top-down” method based on pre-dicted value proportion and method based on least square estimation and predicted value pro-portion proposed by this paper. Then, it uses actual apparel sales data to verify these methods. Results show that new methods perform better at forecasting accuracy than other two traditional methods on the basis of coordination of forecasting results. This could provide new train of thought for enterprises which have the demand of hierarchical sales forecasting.