基于多种场面冲突形式的离场延误预测

Prediction of Departure Delay Based on Multiple Forms of Conflict

摘要: 随着空中交通流量增加，终端空域容量及运行效率急剧下降，使航班延误现象严重。本文提出离场延误预测模型，将离场过程分为滑行阶段和排队阶段两部分，分别计算航班的滑行延误和排队延误，从而得到航班的离场总延误。在计算滑行延误的过程中考虑了场面冲突的影响。最后，通过青岛机场的实际延误数据和仿真计算预测的数据对比，表明本文提出的离场延误预测模型能够较为准确的预测航班离场延误值，能为航班运行提供准确依据。

Abstract: With the increase of air traffic, terminal airspace capacity and operating efficiency dropped sharply, so that flight delays are serious. In this paper, we proposed the departure delay predic-tion model, which divides the departure process into two stages: the taxiing-out stage and the queuing stage. The taxi-out delay and queuing delay are calculated respectively, so as to get the total departure delay. The effect of conflictions is taken into account in the process of calculating taxi-out delays. Finally, through comparing the actual delay data of Qingdao airport and the simulation data, it is shown that the proposed model of departure delay can predict the delay value of flight departure accurately and provide accurate basis for flight operation.