太原城市客运交通碳排放

Carbon Emission of Urban Passenger Traffic in Taiyuan, China

摘要: 基于统计数据，利用IPCC2006“自下而上”方法研究了太原市2000~2014年城市客运交通(UPT)碳排放发展规律，评估了“煤-电-车”战略的减排意义。太原UPT发展最突出的变化是私人汽车数量呈指数型增长，而公共交通的发展十分缓慢。太原UPT碳排放量年均增长约11%，2014年达417.5万吨。2006年后碳排放增长加速，人均UPT碳排放增速达63 kg CO₂/(人•a)，单位道路面积UPT碳排放增速8 kg CO₂/(m²•a)。私人汽车和经营性民用车是主要的UPT排放源，共占2014年UPT排放量的90.4%。私人汽车碳排放量以22.7%/a的速度增长，自2011年起取代经营性民用车成为最大的UPT碳排放源。公共交通服务能力有限且居民购买力显著增长促使私人汽车超高速增长，这是UPT碳排放量自2006年加速增长的主要原因。太原UPT碳排放发展符合库兹涅茨曲线规律，随GDP继续增长将进入增速趋缓阶段。若“煤-电-车”战略实施，以2014年为基准的碳减排达37%，单位GDP碳排放相对2005年下降48.8%，效果明显。但是不能实现2030年减排60%~65%的目标。使用更加清洁的能源降低煤电比重是实现UPT低碳发展的能源战略。

Abstract: Based on the statistical data, the CO₂ emission of urban passenger traffic (UPT) was studied for the period from 2000 to 2014 in Taiyuan using the so-called “down-up” method of IPCC2006. Furthermore, the “coal-electricity-vehicle” development strategy was evaluated. The most significant changes of the UPT were the exponential growth of private vehicles and the very slow development of public transport service. The average annual growth rate of the CO₂ emission from UPT was 11% with a total of 4.175 × 106 t in 2014. Since 2006, the growth was accelerated. The CO₂ emission per capital from UPT increased 63 kg CO₂/a after 2006. And the emission of road area average augmented 8 kg CO₂/(m²•a). The CO₂ emissions of private vehicles and business vehicles dominated the emission of UPT accounting for 90.4% of the total in 2014. The emissions of private vehicles increased by 22.7%/a during 2000 to 2014, which resulted in a shift of the biggest carbon source of UPT from business vehicles to private vehicles in 2011. The limited public transport service ability and the evident rise of purchasing power of residents promoted the burst of private vehicles that was considered as the major reasons for the accelerated emission of UPT since 2006. The development of UPT CO₂ emission follows the rule of Kuznets Curve. It is suggested that a decrease of the growth rate of the emission will occur in a near future with the increasing of GDP. If the strategy of “coal-electricity-vehicle” set in, the UPT CO₂ emission would decrease by 37% and the emission of unit GDP would reduce by 48.8% in 2014. However, that doesn’t hit the target of 2030 emission reduction (60%~65%). Employing clean energy and reducing usage of coal power should be the appropriate way to achieve low-carbon transportation.