一带一路沿线国家碳排放的LMDI分解研究

Research on LMDI Decomposition of Carbon Emissions from OBOR Countries

摘要: “一带一路”战略有利于带路国家履行减排承诺，还能帮助其实现绿色可持续发展，这对“一带一路”战略得到世界认同并取得成功具有重要意义。本文基于对数平均迪式分解法(LMDI)将碳排放贡献因素分解为：人口、人均GDP、能源碳强度和能源强度，发现四项因素对不同国家的影响具有差异性，同时存在一定的地域综合性；人口和人均GDP对碳排放的贡献大致是一个由正转负的过程，后两项则相反，且能源碳强度和能源强度越来越成为“一带一路”沿线国家减排的重要考量因素。因此，沿线各国地区在制定低碳发展政策时，要立足自身情况，积极借鉴其他国家经验，尽可能与周边国家地区在气候领域范围内协同共进，进而建立起适应全球气候变化的发展新路径。

Abstract: In the process of implementing the “OBOR” strategy, both to lead the countries to fulfill the com-mitment to reduce emissions and achieve its green sustainable development, the “OBOR” strategy getting the world recognition and success is of great significance. Based on LMDI, the contribution of carbon emission is decomposed into four categories: population, per capita GDP, energy carbon intensity and energy intensity. It is found that the four factors have different effects on different countries, but there is also a certain degree of territoriality. The first two contributions to carbon emissions are roughly a process of positive to negative. The latter two are the opposite, and energy carbon intensity and energy intensity have increasingly become important factors in OBOR’s emission reduction. Therefore, countries and regions in the development of low-carbon development policies should base on their own situation, learn from other countries’ experience, as far as possible with the neighboring countries and regions in the climate field synergies, and then establish a new path to the development of global climate change.