北京市能源消费与经济增长动态关系的研究

Research on the Dynamic Relationship between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth of Beijing

摘要: 通过对北京市1983~2016年能源消耗增量和经济增长量时间序列进行分析，结果表明GDP增长量与能源消耗增量之间存在协整关系，但两者并不存在因果关系。并通过建立ARIMA(1,1,0)模型对能源消费总量进行预测，发现2020年能源消费总量7143.79万t标准煤在设定的“十三五”规划目标7600万t标准煤之内，并且年均能源增长率在小于2.1%，即北京市采用现行的保守政策将不会对能源消费总量扩大到预期。

Abstract: Based on the data analysis of annual energy consumption increment and economic growth in Beijing from 1983 to 2016, the results show that there is a co-integration relationship between GDP growth and energy consumption increment, but there is no causal relationship between them. Establish ARIMA (1,1,0) model to predict the total energy consumption and found that the total energy consumption 714.379 million tons of standard coal that is in the set of “thirteen five” planning that targeted 76 million tons of standard coal, and the average annual energy growth rate of less than 2.1% in 2020. So Beijing will adopt the current conservative policy that will not expand the total energy consumption to the expected.