针对A商场智能手机销售量的各模型比较

Comparison of Models for Sales of Smart Phone in A Shopping Mall

摘要: 本文研究的是以A商场为例，针对2005年9月到2017年8月该商场智能手机的销售量数据应用SPSS进行模型研究分析，试用指数分解模型、ARIMA模型和指数平滑模型分析数据，比较各模型对该数据的适用情况，找出最适合其销售量的模型，然后用最适合的模型进行一年内短期预测，以期得到最符合将来实际情况的销售数据，便于A商场进行产品的分配。

Abstract: This article is based on the A market as an example, which is according to the mall smartphone data application SPSS model research and analysis from the September 2005 to August 2017. This paper tries to use the trial exponential decomposition model, ARIMA model and exponential smoothing model to analyze and compare the data of each model. It is used to find the most suitable model for its sales. We make the short-term forecasting within a year by this model. Then we will get the actual sales data in the future for facilitating the distribution of products in the A market.