三大产业对通货膨胀的非对称性作用及实证分析

The Asymmetric Effect of Three Industries on Inflation and Empirical Analysis

摘要: 本文将理论模型与调查数据相结合，探讨了不同发展阶段经济体中不同产业对各自经济体通货膨胀的影响。首先建立多生产部门货币政策模型并结合统计数据估计模型参数，然后对随后年份的通货膨胀率进行预测，同时将之与单一生产部门货币政策模型预测的通货膨胀率进行比较。分析显示相较于单生产部门货币政策模而言多生产部门货币政策模型预测值总体更为准确有效。同时根据多生产部门货币政策模型研究发现，第一产业占比较高的经济体其第一产业对其通货膨胀的贡献为负，二、三产业贡献总体为正；第一产业占比较低且第二、三产业占比较高的经济体其第三产业对其通货膨胀的贡献为负，一、二产业的贡献总体为正；而对几乎所有的经济体来说第二产业对通货膨胀的贡献都为正。即不同发展阶段经济体的不同产业对通货膨胀的敏感性具有非对称性的作用，这一结论为不同经济体的政府制定较为合理的货币和产业政策提供了一定理论启示，也为不同发展阶段经济体更有效控制通货膨胀提供了方向和着力点。

Abstract: This paper examines the inflation of industrial structure based on theoretical models with survey data for different economic entities. Firstly, we establish the monetary policy model of multi-production department and estimate the model parameters based on the statistical data. Then the inflation rate of the following years is predicted by the model, and is compared with the inflation rate of the single production department. The analysis shows that the forecast value of the monetary policy model of the multi-production sectors is more accurate and effective than the model of single-production department. Meanwhile, it is found that the primary industries and secondary/tertiary industries have negative and positive contribution to inflation in the economic entities with the higher proportion of primary industry, respectively. On the contrary, the tertiary industries and primary/secondary industries have negative and positive contribution to inflation in the economic entities with the higher proportion of secondary and tertiary industry, respectively. While the contributions of the secondary industry to inflation for almost economies are positive. We find that the feature of inflation possesses asymmetric effect for the three industries, and the influence form is different for economic entities with different industrial structure. This result provides some theoretical enlightenment to adjust and control inflation for government.