气候变化对黄河源区的水文影响分析
Hydrological Impact of Climate Change on the Source Region of the Yellow River
DOI: 10.12677/JWRR.2018.72015, PDF,  被引量    国家自然科学基金支持
作者: 王亚迪, 权 全, 薛涛涛, 沈 冰, 张晓龙：西安理工大学西北水资源与环境生态教育部重点实验室，陕西 西安
关键词: 黄河源区；气候变化；气温；降水；径流变化；Source Region of the Yellow River； Climate Change； Temperature； Precipitation； Runoff Variation
摘要: 近年来，黄河源区由于受到气候变化和人类活动的影响，生态系统和水文情势均发生显著变化。本文就气候变化对黄河源区的影响展开调查，分析了源区的气温的变化趋势及突变年代，降水的季节分配和变化趋势，以及径流的年内变化和年际变化。本文通过计算径流年内分配不均匀系数判断径流分配均匀性，通过分析滑动平均序列的曲线判断整个时间序列的趋势，通过累积距平曲线的变化判断序列大致突变的时间以及长期持续变化情况和演变趋势。结果表明：在气候因子变化分析中，在1960~2014年长时间序列中，黄河源区年平均气温呈现显著增加趋势。根据降水变化分析结果，黄河源区降水年内分配差异较大，在年际变化上，降水量整体呈现不显著的增加趋势。黄河源区径流量不均匀系数较大，集中度较高，说明径流分配有明显的丰枯季节变化。径流量整体呈现减少的趋势，这种趋势在90年代至21世纪中期尤为明显。
Abstract: In recent years, because of the climate change and human activities in the source region of the Yellow River, both the ecosystem and hydrological conditions have undergone significant changes. This paper investigated the impact of climate change on the source region of the Yellow River, and analyzed the trend of temperature in the source region, the age of mutation, seasonal distribution, trend of precipitation, and variation of runoff. In this paper, the distribution uniformity of runoff was determined by calculating the non-uniform distribution coefficient of annual runoff. The trend of the whole series was judged by analyzing the curve of the moving average sequence. The change of accumulated anomalous curve could be used to judge the approximate time of mutation and the long-term continuous change and evolution trend. The results showed that in the analysis of climatic factors, the annual mean temperature in the source region of the Yellow River increased significantly from 1960 to 2014 in the long time series. According to the results of precipitation change analysis, the distribution of precipitation in the source region of the Yellow River was quite different. The interannual variation of precipitation showed an insignificant increase overall. The non-uniform coefficient and the concentration of runoff in the source region of the Yellow River were large, which indicated that there was a clear seasonal change in the distribution of runoff. The overall runoff showed a decreasing trend, especially during the period of 1990s to mid-21st century.
文章引用：王亚迪, 权全, 薛涛涛, 沈冰, 张晓龙. 气候变化对黄河源区的水文影响分析[J]. 水资源研究, 2018, 7(2): 135-143. https://doi.org/10.12677/JWRR.2018.72015

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