我国粮食播种面积影响因素的实证研究

Empirical Study on Influential Factors of Sown Area of Grain in China

摘要: 本文针对影响粮食播种面积的问题，建立计量模型。首先从影响因变量的三类因素选取指标，即成本类因素、要素拥有类因素、政策类因素，构建关于粮食种植面积的指标体系；其次将指标体系作为数学模型选择自变量的依据，选取以河南、山东、安徽为代表的三地区20年面板数据构建粮食种植面积的影响因素的数学模型；最后通过检验模型系数的显著性来讨论、评价指标体系的合理性，若存在问题，并给出修正。

Abstract: This article aims at affecting the sown area of grain and the establishment of measurement model. First of all, we select the index from the three factors that affect the dependent variable, namely the cost factor, factor owning factor and policy factor, and construct the index system about the grain acreage. Then, the indicator system is used as the basis for the variable selection in mathematical model. The model is modeled for the determining factors affecting grain planting area, using 20-year panel data in Henan, Shandong and Anhui. In the end, by examining the significance of the model coefficients, the rationality of the index system is evaluated, and if there is a problem, then policy recommendations are made.