基于面板数据港口集装箱吞吐量经济效应分析

Economic Effect Analysis of Port Container Throughput Based on Panel Data

摘要: 选取我国11个港口2005~2015年集装箱吞吐量和各地区生产总值这两个指标的面板数据，首先对各个港口集装箱吞吐量与国内生产总值做相关性分析，发现港口集装箱吞吐量与各地区生长总值间存在很强的相关性。然后从三维(个体、时间、指标)角度对港口集装箱吞吐量进行相应分析，运用面板协整方法度量我国主要港口集装箱吞吐量与经济增长之间的协整关系，并对二者关系做格兰杰因果检验，在此基础上揭示了主要港口集装箱吞吐量与经济增长的数量关系。研究表明：长期内，我国主要港口集装箱吞吐量存在显著地域差异，经济增长能带动集装箱吞吐量的增长。

Abstract: Selecting the container throughput of 11 ports in China from 2005 to 2015, and gross regional domestic product as two indicators, first of all, this paper does correlation analysis between the container throughput of ports and GDP, and finds that there is a strong correlation between them. Then the paper does the corresponding analysis of the ports’ container throughput from three angles (individual, time, index). Based on the panel co-integration method, co-integration relation between the container throughput of main ports and the economic growth has been measured, and tested using Granger causality test. On this basis, the paper reveals the quantita-tive relation between the main ports’ container throughput and the economic growth. Research shows that: in a long term, there are significant regional differences among the container throughput from different ports in China, and the economic growth can lead to the growth of container throughput.