基于ESI和SCI-E数据库的学科发展预测方法：以青岛大学为例

The Methods of Subject Forecast Based on the Databases of ESI and SCIE: Taking Qingdao University for Example

摘要: “双一流”的关键是学科世界一流。这就需要更多学科进入全球排名前1%、甚至前1‰。如何发掘、识别潜力学科，同时对潜力学科的发展前景进行精准预测，从理论上指导更多学科进入全球排名前列，已经引起了各科研管理部门的重视。本文基于Web of Science数据库中的数据积累，利用最小二乘法，结合对青岛大学化学学科成功预测的基本方法，对其他潜力学科进行了识别与评测。推动ESI潜力学科的提升是一个长期的系统工程，本文方法基于数据的积累，具备识别和评估潜力学科，并对其预测的实践意义。该方法适用于其他高校及科研院所对本机构的潜力学科进行动态监测及策略调整。

Abstract: The key of the “Double World-classes” Development is that subjects are world-class. It requires more subjects to enter the world’s top 1%, or even the top 1‰. How to discern and identify po-tential subjects and the precise prediction of potential subjects have been received great interest for the departments of scientific research and management in the universities. This would pro-mote more disciplines theoretically into the top positions in the global ranking. Based on the data accumulation in the Web of Science database, combined with the successful prediction of chemistry of Qingdao University, this paper discusses and evaluates other subjects in Qingdao University by using the least squares method. The promotion of potential ESI subjects is a long-term system task. This method has the practical significance of its prediction and evaluation of potential subjects. It should be applicable to other universities and research institutes to carry out their dynamic monitoring and strategic adjustment of the potential subjects.