房地产周期性波动的谱分析研究

Study on Spectral Analysis of Real Estate Cyclic Fluctuation

摘要: 简述研究具有周期特征的经济数据的理论工具，依据1988~2016年全国房地产市场供求类数据，提取主成分得到供求双方的综合指标；讨论综合指标时序值的稳定性特征，利用谱分析计算供求双方的周期。研究表明：全国房地产市场供求双方均呈现周期性波动；供给方存在3.5年的主周期和5.6年的次周期，需求方存在4.67年的主周期和2.8年的次周期；从长期发展来看，供求双方具有均衡发展的趋势。

Abstract: This paper first briefly describes the theoretical tools on studying economic data with periodic characteristics, then key indicators both of the supply and demand are identified by extracting the principal components from statistical data of real estate market in China from 1988 to 2016. Discussing the stability characteristics of the key indicators, the cycles both of the supply and demand is calculated by using spectral analysis techniques. The results show that both supply and demand fluctuate periodically. The supply has a main cycle about 3.5-year long and a secondary 5.6-year cycle. In the meantime, the demand has a main cycle of 4.67 and a sub-cycle of 2.8 years. From the long-term development, the supply and demand would have the trend of balanced development.