汉江中下游地区水资源多目标优化配置

Multi-Objective Optimal Allocation of Water Resources in the Middle and Lower Reaches of Hanjiang River Basin

摘要: 本文结合水资源配置过程中的有效性、公平性和可持续性原则，以社会、经济和生态效益为目标，构建了汉江中下游地区水资源多目标优化配置模型，并应用第二代非支配排序遗传算法(NSGA-II)对模型进行求解。以2010年为现状水平年，2030年为规划水平年，采用1956~2011年的长系列历史径流资料和规划水平年需水预测的数据为基础，通过对水库运行规则和用水户优先级等变量的控制，实现汉江中下游地区的优化配置。在得到的最优Pareto解集中，选取不同的典型方案，对缺水量、经济效益和污染物排放量3个指标进行了对比分析。结果表明：该模型得到的水资源优化配置结果是合理可行的。研究结果可以为汉江中下游地区的水资源规划管理提供科学合理的依据，帮助决策者实现更高效和准确的水资源优化配置。

Abstract: Combined with the principles of efficiency, fairness and sustainability in the water resources allocation, a multi-objective water resources optimal allocation model is proposed and applied in the middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River basin. Taking economic, social and environment benefits as the objec-tive functions, the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm-II (NSGA-II) is used to optimize the alloca-tion model. The years of 2010 and 2030 are selected as the baseline and planning level year, respectively. Based on the long-term historical runoff data from 1956 to 2011 and the water demand prediction in the planning level year, the optimal distribution is achieved by setting up the reservoir operation rules, water user priority and other variables. In the Pareto solutions, three indices of water shortage, economic benefit and pollutant discharge are compared and analyzed under different typical schemes, which indicates that the results are reasonable and applicable. This study can provide scientific basis for water resources planning and management in the middle and lower reaches of Hanjiang River basin, which help decision-makers achieve more efficient and accurate water resources allocation.