厄瓜多尔瓜亚斯河洪水遭遇与设计洪水地区组成分析

Flood Composition and Coincidence Probability Analysis for Guayas River in Ecuador

摘要: 本文选择了Daule河的H0365站、Vinces河的H0347站、Babahoyo河的H0346站作为水文分析计算的依据站，分析Guayas河的洪水组成及遭遇情况。研究结果表明，Guayas河干流与主要支流年最大洪峰流量一般出现在12~5月，集中出现在1~4月，Guayas河洪水主要来源为Babahoyo河、Daule河、Vinces河。从洪水遭遇来看，2、3、4三个月发生遭遇洪水的机率最大，占88.5%，其中尤以2月份遭遇洪水最多，占40.4%。在1965年10月~2010年9月统计年限内，Babahoyo河、Vinces河、Paule河三条河流控制站没有发生年最大洪峰同时相遭遇的情况，三条河流控制站过程遭遇有7次，概率为14.9%。洪水遭遇与设计洪水地区组成分析，为防洪规划提供了重要技术支撑。

Abstract: In this study, the H0365 station of the Daule River, the H0347 station of the Vinces River and the H0346 station of the Babahoyo River were selected as the basis stations for the flood composition and coincidence probability analysis of Guayas River. The results indicate that, the maximum peak flows in the main and tributaries of the Guayas River are generally occurred from December to May, and the annual maximum peak flows mainly concentrate during January to April. The main sources of the Guayas River flood are from Babahoyo River, Daule River and Vinces River. From the flood coincidence probability analysis, February, March and April occur with the highest probability of flood encounter, especially in February. From October 1965 to September 2010, there is no occurrence of the Babahoyo River, the Vinces River, and the Daule River’s largest peak at the same time. The flood process suffers 7 times with a probability of 14.9%.