基于MATLAB构建人口数学模型研究二胎开放对中国人口的影响

Constructing Population Mathematical Model Based on MATLAB to Study the Influence of the Second Birth Opening on Chinese Population

摘要: 为应对我国目前老龄化严重、劳动力供需不平衡、家庭压力大等问题，我国出台全面二孩政策，本文是对全面二孩政策对中国人口的影响的分析。通过改进Leslie矩阵的人口预测算法，以及逐步推演法和基于人口本身变动要素和人口学原理的队列要素法预测了2015年到2030中国的人口。应用MATLAB和SPSS软件对二孩政策实施后的劳动力问题、老龄化问题和抚养比问题分别进行长期和短期的预测。对得出数据与现有数据进行比较得出结论，开放二胎以后对我国经济发展、缓解老龄化以及提高劳动力数量具有积极作用。

Abstract: In response to the current problems of aging in China, unbalanced labor supply and demand, and family pressure, our country has introduced a comprehensive two-child policy. This article is an analysis of the impact of the comprehensive two-child policy on the Chinese population. The population of the Chinese population from 2015 to 2030 is forecasted by improving the Leslie matrix population prediction algorithm, as well as the progressive deduction method and the queue element method based on the demographic factors and demographic principles of the population itself. Applying MATLAB and SPSS software, long-term and short-term labor problems, ageing issues, and dependency ratios after the implementation of the second-child policy are predicted. Comparing the data obtained with the existing data, it is concluded that the opening of the second child has a positive effect on China’s economic development, the alleviation of aging, and the increase in the number of laborers.