河南省空气污染与经济增长关系实证研究

An Empirical Study on the Relationship between Air Pollution and Economic Growth in Henan Province

摘要: 利用VAR模型，对河南省经济增长与空气污染的动态影响关系进行了实证研究，实证表明2000~2015年GDP对SO2排放量的弹性为0.164，对烟(粉)尘排放量的弹性为−0.105；河南省的经济增长与空气污染存在长期的稳定关系；经济增长与空气污染的关系呈现、“倒U型”和“N型”关系，区别于其他省市；大气污染对经济增长的负面影响在较长的滞后期之后才会显现出来，其中SO₂对经济增长的负面影响滞后期为5年左右，烟(粉)尘对经济增长的负面影响的滞后期为3年左右；SO₂排放量对经济增长的预测方差的贡献要大于烟(粉)尘对经济增长的预测方差的贡献。

Abstract: The VAR model was used to empirically study the dynamic relationship between economic growth and air pollution in Henan Province. The empirical results show that the elasticity of GDP for SO2 emissions in the period from 2000 to 2015 is 0.164. The elasticity of smoke (powder) dust emissions is −0.105. There is a long-term and stable relationship between economic growth and air pollution in Henan Province. The relationship between economic growth and air pollution presents an “inverted U-shaped” and “N-shaped” relationship, which is different from other provinces and cities; air pollution affects economic growth. The negative impact will only appear after a long lag period, in which the negative impact of SO₂ on economic growth will lag for about 5 years, and the negative impact of smoke (powder) dust on economic growth will lag for about 3 years; The contribution of SO₂ emissions quantity to the forecast variance of economic growth is greater than the contribution of smoke (powder) dust to the forecast variance of economic growth.