气候变暖背景下淮河生态经济带水环境演变特征

Temporal Evolution of Water Environment in Huaihe Eco-Economy Belt under Global Warming

摘要: 本文基于1960~2014年气象数据以及1998~2014年淮河流域水资源公报数据，对淮河生态经济带水文情势和水质演变特征进行了分析。主要结论如下：1) 气温表现为显著上升趋势，降水量变化不显著。冷极值呈显著下降，暖极值呈波动上升趋势，降水极值表现为不显著变化；年与季节旱涝指数无显著变化趋势；2) 水资源总量随降水变化呈波动变化。废水排放量呈显著增长趋势，化学需氧量(COD)排放量减少。I、II、III类水的比重增加，IV和V类水的比重减少，水质总体向好，但污染仍然较为严重。

Abstract: Based on the meteorological and water resources data of Huaihe basin from 1960 to 2014, this paper analyzes the hydrological changes and evolution characteristics of water quality in Huaihe eco-economy zone. The main conclusions are as follows: 1) Temperature increased significantly, and precipitation did not change obviously. The cold extremes showed a significant decrease trend, warm extremes being an increase trend, and the precipitation extreme showed no obvious change. There was no significant change in drought/flood indices at the annual and seasonal scale; 2) The total amount of water resources was fluctuated with the change of precipitation. The quantity of wastewater emissions showed a significant increasing trend, while the COD emissions have reduced. The proportions of I, II and III have increased, while the proportions of IV and V water have decreased, which indicated that the water quality has become better. While the pollution is still serious, the proportion of IV and V water is still more than 50%.