气候变化下基于SWAT模型的地下水补给变化研究

Impact of Climate Change on Change of Groundwater Recharge Based on SWAT Model

摘要:  在气候变化的情况下，研究未来流域各水均衡要素及地下水的补给变化情况，对未来流域的地下水资源的开发利用非常重要。本文利用SWAT模型对西安黑河流域未来气候变化情景下，水均衡要素及地下水补给情况进行模拟。结果表明：1) SWAT模型对西安黑河流域水资源模拟适用性良好；2) 在未来的50年，流域的地表径流量与地下径流量逐年减小，对降水的响应程度都较高；蒸散发量和降水量逐渐增加，受温度和降水等多种气候因素的影响；3) 未来50年的地下水补给量整体上有所下降，降水量在短期内是影响地下水补给量的主要因素；而在长时间系列内，温度等其他因素也会较强的影响地下水补给量。

Abstract: Studying the impact of future climate change on water equilibrium factors and groundwater re-charge is very important for the exploitation and utilization of groundwater resources in the basin. Based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model, the variation of water equilibrium factors and groundwater recharge in Xi’an Heihe River Basin under the future climate change scenarios is simulated. The result indicated that: 1) The SWAT model is of higher adaptability and accuracy in water resources simulation of the Heihe River Basin. 2) In the next 50 years of the basin, the amounts of surface and groundwater runoffs decrease year by year, and they have a higher degree of response to precipitation; evapotranspiration and precipitation gradually increase, and they are affected by various climatic factors such as temperature and precipitation. 3) The amount of groundwater recharge shows a decline over the next 50 years. Precipitation is the main factor affecting groundwater recharge in the short run; however, other factors such as temperature also strongly affect groundwater recharge in a long time series.