基于出行生成影响分析的动态交通需求预测方法研究

Research on Dynamic Traffic Demand Forecasting Method Based on Travel Generation Impact Analysis

摘要: 信息化时代下的居民出行特征已发生改变。现有城市交通需求预测主要是利用土地利用性质进行预测的方法。通过城市居民出行调查主要内容和传统居民出行需求特征，分析未来居民出行特征的动态变化和主要出行生成影响因素，结合层次分析法确立出行生成预测阶段的土地利用、出行方式构成和出行选择等出行影响要素权重，对城市人口-土地利用-出行生成关系模型中的区位影响系数进行修正，表征出行生成阶段居民的出行需求动态性，提出“动态”交通出行需求预测分析方法，应用于桂林市交通出行需求预测分析与评价，结果对比表明，较传统出行需求预测可体现居民出行的动态特性。

Abstract: The characteristics of the residents’ travel in the information age have changed. The existing ur-ban traffic demand forecast is mainly proceed by using the land property. Based on the main contents of urban residents’ travel survey and the characteristics of traditional residents’ travel demand, this paper analyzed the dynamic changes of travel characteristics and the main influencing factors of travel formation of future residents. And combined with the travel influence factor weight of travel generation forecast stage established by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), such as the land use, travel mode composition and travel choice, the location influence coefficient in the model of population, land use and travel generation in city was modified to characterize the dynamic state of travel demand of residents in the phase of travel generation stage. Then a “dynamic” method for forecasting and analyzing traffic travel demand was put forward to apply to the prediction and evaluation of travel demand in Guilin. The results showed that it can reflect the dynamic characteristics of residents’ travel compared with the traditional travel demand prediction.