创业板公司财务指标与股价的关联性研究—基于制造业和信息技术业

The Correlation between Financial Indexes and Stock Prices in ChiNext—Based on Manufacturing and IT Industry

摘要: 由于创业板市场的特殊性，研究创业板市场的制造业和信息技术业公司的股价与财务指标之间的关系是非常必要的。本文通过因子分析法提取出盈利能力因子、营运能力因子、偿债能力因子和成长能力因子，并以各因子为自变量，股价为因变量建立回归方程。实证结果表明创业板制造业公司的股价与盈利能力因子、成长能力因子和偿债能力因子存在显著正向关系，而营运能力因子无显著关系；信息技术业公司的股价与偿债能力因子无显著关系，而受到其它三个因子的影响，且最容易受到成长能力因子的影响。由是投资者在投资制造业公司股票时应重点关注该公司的盈利能力，而在投资信息技术业公司股票时应重点关注公司的成长能力。两个行业的公司都应该更加重视偿债能力和营运能力。

Abstract: Most listed companies in GEM market of China have the characteristic of high risk and high income. The most common information that the investors can get about operating performance of listed companies is financial statements. Hence, it is necessary to study the relationship between the stock prices and financial indexes of the manufacturing and information technology companies in ChiNext. This article reduces the dimension of original financial indicators with factor analysis method, forming the profitability factor, operation capacity factor, debt paying ability factor and growth ability factor. The paper takes the four factors as independent variables, and takes stock prices as the dependent variable to establish the regression equation, discussing the specific relationship among all kinds of financial indicators and stock prices. It aims to provide a better reference for the investors to choose stocks and for the listed companies to improve their management ability. The empirical results show that the listed companies’ share prices in manufacturing industry have significant positive relationship with profitability factor, growth ability factor and debt paying ability factor, and it has no significant correlation with operation ability factor. As for information technology companies, their share price has no significant relationship with debt paying ability factor, and it is strongly influenced by the other three factors and most susceptible to the growth ability factor. Investors should pay more attention to the profit-ability of the company when investing in the stocks of manufacturing industry, and should focus on the company’s growth ability when investing in information technology industry. Companies in both industries should pay more attention to their solvency and operational capacity.