中国民航生产要素贡献率及其演化研究

The Research on Contribution Rate and Its Evolution of Production Factors of China’s Civil Aviation

摘要: 民航业为国民经济快速发展和国际商贸往来中的人流、物流提供了基础保障，是一国战略性、基础性行业。本文基于C-D生产函数，使用中国民航发展过程中1995年~2015年间主要投入要素及航空运输产出的数据，分析确定这期间的民航生产函数模型，利用索洛余值法测算分析民航业发展二十年来的生产要素贡献率及变化情况，对比找出要素贡献率演化规律，从而为民航业在供给侧改革方面找准着力点，进行系统优化，使民航更好地服务于国民经济发展和人流、物流需求。

Abstract: As a country’s strategic and basic industry, the civil aviation industry provides the basic guaran-tee for the rapid development of the national economy and the flow of people and logistics in the international trade. Based on the CD production function, this paper uses the data of the main input factors and aviation transport output in China’s civil aviation development process from 1995 to 2015 to determine the civil aviation production function model during this period. We use the Solow residual method to measure the contribution rate of the factors of production and the change of the factors during the development of civil aviation industry for 20 years, com-parative analysis to find out the evolution of the contribution rate of factors, so as to give a reasonable and effective supply structure for how the civil aviation industry should adjust the structure of production factors in the future supply-side reform situation to promote civil avia-tion industry quality and efficiency, sustainable development.