经济增长、老龄化与医疗费用增长的协整分析与误差修正模型

Cointegration Analysis and Error Correction Model of Economic Growth, Aging and Medical Cost Growth

摘要: 我国是一个人口老龄化问题比较突出的国家，1990年以来，我国的老龄化进程不断加快。老龄化不可避免的对我国社会产生了一定的影响。于此同时，我国的医疗资源不足，医疗费用较高，为探索医疗费用增长与经济增长和老龄化的关系，本文考虑人均GDP，65岁及以上人口比例和人均医疗费用这三个时间序列，选用多元时间序列分析常用的协整分析和误差修正模型的方法，对三者的内在依存长期均衡关系和短期调整机制进行了探讨，分析表明我国的医疗费用和老年人比例以及GDP之间存在协整关系，经济增长、人口老龄化对医疗费用增长都有长期影响和短期调整作用。

Abstract: China is a relatively prominent country with a population aging problem. Since 1990, China’s aging process has been accelerating. Ageing inevitably has a certain impact on our society. At the same time, China’s medical resources are insufficient and medical costs are relatively high. In order to explore the relationship between the growth of medical expenses and economic growth and aging, this paper considers the three time series of per capita GDP, the proportion of people aged 65 and over, and per capita medical expenses. The method of cointegration analysis and error correction model used in multivariate time series analysis was used to explore the long-term equilibrium re-lationship and short-term adjustment mechanisms of the intrinsic interdependence. The analysis shows that there is an agreement between China’s medical expenses, elderly population ratio, and GDP. The overall relationship, economic growth, and population aging have long-term effects and short-term adjustments on the growth of medical expenses.