湖南省人口老龄化态势分析及趋势预测

Analysis on the Aging of the Population in Hunan Province and Its Trend Forecast

摘要: 湖南省地域不广，人口众多。经过整理分析2010年第六次全国人口普查的数据可知，2010年，湖南省的常住总人口已经达到56,820万人，占全国人口的4.87%，位居全国第七。其中65岁及以上的人口数达到6351万人，占湖南省总人口的11.2%，14岁及以下人口数达到9784万人，占湖南省总人口的17.2%。湖南省的人口老龄化水平在全国排第六位。在这种现实背景下，本文运用统计学知识进行理论与实证分析，对湖南省人口老龄化进行定性和定量分析。本文在国内国外对人口老龄化问题的分析研究成果的基础上，分析湖南省人口老龄化发展的特殊性，并根据2008~2015年湖南省65岁及以上人口数建立GM (1, 1)模型预测湖南省人口老龄化发展趋势并分析预测结果。在了解人口老龄化发展的严峻趋势以及其可能产生的不良社会影响之后，分析湖南省现行的养老政策，提出改进措施。

Abstract: Hunan Province covers a small area with large population. After finishing the analysis of the 2010 sixth national census data show that in 2010, the total population of Hunan has reached 568 million 200 thousand people, accounting for about 4.87% of the country’s population, ranking the country’s seventh. The number of people aged 65 and above is up to 63 million 510 thousand, accounting for Hunan’s total population of about 11.2%, the number of people under the age of 14 and up to 97 million 840 thousand, accounting for Hunan’s total population about 17.2%. The development level of population aging in Hunan is also the 6th in the whole country. In this context, this paper uses the statistical knowledge to carry on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of population aging in Hunan province. Based on the domestic and abroad on the problem of aging population in the analysis on the research results, the analysis of the particularity of the development of population aging in Hunan Province, and according to the China statistical yearbook data, establishes the Leslie matrix model, prediction of Hunan province population Kazakhstan development trend analysis and forecasts the result using excel iteration. In order to understand the serious trend of population aging and its possible adverse social impact, this paper analyzes the current pension policy in Hunan Province, and puts forward the improvement measures.