湖南省城乡居民收入差距预测—基于ARIMA-GM模型

Forecast of Income Gap between Urban and Rural Residents in Hunan Province—A Study Based on ARIMA-GM Combination Model

摘要: 城乡收入差距问题一直是五年规划中重点问题。文章采用湖南省2004年至2017年城乡居民收入的季度数据，分别利用季节乘法ARIMA模型、GM(1,1)模型和ARIMA-GM组合模型建模并检验和比较，最后将模型应用于湖南省2018年至2019年城乡收入差距预测与分析。结果表明，ARIMA-GM组合模型能够较好的解决收入差距的估计和预测问题，预测精度较高，从而为政府制定相关政策提提供重要依据。

Abstract: The income gap between urban and rural areas has always been a key issue in the five-year plan. In this article, by collecting the quarterly data of urban and rural residents’ income in Hunan Province from 2004 to 2017, we establish and compare the seasonal multiplicative ARIMA model, GM(1,1) model, and ARIMA-GM combined model, finally the ARIMA-GM combination model is applied to analysis and forecast the urban-rural income gap in Hunan from 2018 to 2019. The result shows that the ARIMA-GM combination model can solve the problem of estimating and predicting the income gap in Hunan province, and the prediction accuracy is high, so as to provide an important basis for the government to formulate relevant policies.