基于完全分解法的长江三角洲地区用水量时空分异研究

Spatial-Temporal Differences in Water Use in the Yangtze River Delta Based on Complete Decomposition Method

摘要: 基于完全分解法，将2000~2015年长江三角洲地区用水量时空差异分解为人口效应、收入效应、结构效应和强度效应，结果表明：1) 经济增长和人口规模扩大是推动用水量增加的主次因素，而产业用水强度下降和产业结构升级是抑制用水量增加的主次因素；2) 长江三角洲地区三次产业用水效率普遍提高，有力促进用水量下降，第二产业贡献最大，产业结构调整促进用水量下降的来源主要是第一产业比重下降；3) 江苏和浙江用水量大于上海的原因主要是人口规模较大和产业结构低级。因此，进一步降低产业用水强度，优化升级产业结构来实现用水量下降，针对不同产业应该有所侧重；权衡经济增长与水资源消耗之间的关系；控制人口规模也是减少用水量的重要途径；江苏、浙江可以通过控制人口规模和优化升级产业结构缩小用水量与上海的差异。

Abstract: Based on the complete decomposition method, this paper decomposes the spatio-temporal dif-ferences in water use in the Yangtze River Delta from 2000 to 2015 into population effect, income effect, structural effect and intensity effect. The results show that: 1) Economic growth and expan-sion of population size are main factors to promote the increase of water use, while the decline in industrial water intensity and upgrading of industrial structure are the factors that inhibit the in-crease in water use; 2) The water use efficiency in the three industries in the Yangtze River Delta has generally risen, which has effectively promoted the decline in water use, especially the sec-ondary industry. The role of industrial restructuring mainly comes from primary industry; 3) The main reasons for the higher water use in Jiangsu and Zhejiang than Shanghai are the large popula-tion size and low industrial structure. Therefore, to achieve a reduction in water use, we should further reduce industrial water intensity, optimize and upgrade the industrial structure, of course, still need focus on different industries; weighing the relationship between economic growth and water use, and controlling population size are also important ways to reduce water consumption; Jiangsu and Zhejiang can reduce the difference between water use and Shanghai by controlling population size and optimizing and upgrading industrial structure.