基于LMDI方法对河北省终端能源消费影响因素分解分析
Factor Decomposition Analysis of Terminal Energy Consumption in Hebei Province Based on LMDI
摘要:
能源消费问题越来越受到关注，本文基于河北省“十一五”与“十二五”发展背景，充分运用对数平均迪氏指数法(LMDI)分析了2005~2015年河北省各产业部门的终端能源消费以及能源结构变动情况，找出了影响因素，并给出了解释。通过分析得出：经济生产规模的不断扩大是促进河北省能源消费增长的决定性因素，而能源技术效应是有效降低能源消费的手段，能源结构效应影响十分微小，产业结构的影响有待深入研究。在此分析的基础上，根据《河北省国民经济和社会发展第十三个五年规划纲要》的指导，给出可行性建议。
Abstract:
Energy consumption issue is getting more and more attention. This article, under the background of “the 11th Five-Year” and “the 12th Five-Year” development in Hebei Province, analyzes the changes of terminal energy consumption for each industrial sector and energy structure by using the logarithmic mean Divisia index method in Hebei province from 2005 to 2015, finds the influencing factors and gives explanations. We can conclude that the expansion of economic production scale is the decisive factor to promote the growth of energy consumption in Hebei Province, and energy technology factor is the effective measure to reduce energy consumption. The influence of energy structure effect is very small and the influence of industrial structure needs to be studied deeply. On the basis of this analysis, according to the “Hebei Province national economic and social development of the thirteenth five-year plan” guidance, feasibility recommendations are given.
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