基于VAR模型的税收收入水平与GDP之间关系的实证研究—以安徽省为研究对象
Empirical Study on the Relationship between Tax Revenue Level and GDP Based on VAR Model—Taking Anhui Province as a Research Object
摘要:
本文基于1994~2015年数据，运用向量自回归(VAR)模型实证分析安徽省税收收入与GDP水平之间的关系。最终得出结论：在短期内，安徽省税收收入的增加会提高GDP水平，但长期来看，税收收入对GDP起到一个抑制作用。
Abstract:
Based on the data of 1994-2015 years, we use VAR model to empirically analyze the relationship between tax revenue and GDP level in Anhui province. Finally, it is concluded that in the short term, the increase of Anhui’s tax revenue will raise the level of GDP, but in the long run, tax reve-nue will have a restraining effect on GDP.
参考文献
|
[1]
|
Grieson, R.E. (1980) Theoretical Analysis and Empirical Measurements of the Effects of the Philadelphia Income Tax. Journal of Urban Economics, 8, 123-137. [Google Scholar] [CrossRef]
|
|
[2]
|
Scully, G.W. (1991) Tax Rates, Tax Revenues and Economic Growth. National Center for Policy Analysis, Washington.
|
|
[3]
|
Marsden, K. (1983) Links between Taxes and Economic Growth: Some Empirical Evidence. World Bank Working Paper No. 605.
|
|
[4]
|
刘宏杰. 中国税收收入与国内生产总值之间的经验测度——基于VAR模型的经济计量分析(1978-2007) [J]. 上海财经大学学报, 2009, 11(1): 72-78.
|
|
[5]
|
马栓友. 税收结构与经济增长的实证分析——兼论我国的最优直接税/间接税结构[J]. 经济理论与经济管理, 2001, V(7): 15-20.
|
|
[6]
|
宋效中, 赵利民. 宏观税负与中国经济增长[J].探索, 2005(3): 100-104.
|
|
[7]
|
刘普照. 宏观税负与经济增长相关性研究[D]: [博士学位论文]. 上海: 复旦大学, 2003.
|
|
[8]
|
郝春虹. 中国税收与经济增长关系的实证检验[J]. 中央财经大学学报, 2006(4): 1-6 + 56.
|